The proxy wars of today - Miscaculations
Source:
Here we stand on the spring of winds that will shift history… I jest, but only partially.
It should be no secret to anyone who consumes any side of the media, Left or Right, that the entire Western political and elite structure has been pushing very, very hard for the escalation of war against Russia, not merely a spillover between Ukraine-Russia on its neighbors, but a total war of the West, especially the EU against Russia.
While most are aware of the broader conflict, there is so much information floating around it is hard to keep track of the specifics, so a refresher of recent developments. Since Ukraine is bitterly losing the war, it started adopting desperate measures such as hitting critical infrastructure inside Russian territory using drones, especially oil refineries. Russia was not happy and neither was Washington, who kept asking the Ukraine government to stop the attacks.
Russia on the other hand vowed to respond in kind and within months, it obliterated significant parts of the Ukrainian grid, billions of dollars in damage, and almost a decade for reconstruction. Each time Ukraine attacked Russia's infrastructure, Russia responded in kind, with a heavier hand.
The frequency and intensity of attacks fluctuated a lot, with harsher responses from Russia after every few attempts by Ukraine. The latter is what I refer to as a bitter loser, and instead of reevaluating the conflict and peace options, it takes the bait set up by Western Intelligence and drags the conflict and meaningless loss of life on, and still, Russia doesn’t escalate.
Which is changing recently. If not by hook, they will attempt by crook. The first hit was the Dagestan terrorist attack, where 19 people died, 15 of those being police officers. Dagestan is a predominantly Muslim nation that brings opportunities for proxy attacks by Western Intelligence, which is deeply embedded in jihadi networks. Hours after, a Russian electronics company focusing on Defense and sanctioned by the US, suffered a significant fire. But the worst was yet to come.
Belgrod also suffered a large-scale UAV attack.
Replicating the reasons for the start of all this crap (2014-2016) Ukraine decided to target civilians at a Sevastopol beach.
While the Dagestan terrorist attack can be ascribed to purely terrorist activity (hard to accept that when politician’s son was involved…) the Sevastopol cluster attack can’t, the odd dispersion you see in the video can be either a byproduct of direct interception or Electronic Warfare, which Russia leads ahead of the rest of the world’s military by a significant margin.
Among the few dead, a few children. And the worst part of this attack is that this was done using an American missile (ATACMS), which needs American support, American know-how, and American targeting systems (satellites) to effectively target anything. As I wrote previously, unless Ukraine is forced to sign a strong peace agreement, with the US enforcing it, Russia will have a terrorist problem on its border for the foreseeable future.
Using Ukraine as a headless chicken proxy, inebriated in hubris (hubris which I am unable to understand where it comes from) will inevitably lead to the escalation of hybrid warfare and now almost everyone is aware that in this next generation of war, you can’t discern accidents from hybrid war. Precisely the reason why hybrid warfare is extremely effective, remaining understudied and underappreciated.
Two can play the terrorist attack games, but only one player has open borders. This is why the FBI director issued a warning of potential terror attacks in the US. How many black ops, sabotage teams got inside American territory under the open borders policy too ? That is even worse than “just terrorists”.
And to spread the US military and constrain its effectiveness further, you have Israel preparing to invade Lebanon, with the US warning Hezbollah that it can’t expect the US government to stop Israeli escalation.
U.S. officials trying to prevent a bigger Middle East war are issuing an unusual warning to Hezbollah: Don’t assume that Washington can stop Israel from attacking you.
The blunt message comes as many U.S. officials appear resigned to the possibility that Israel will make a major move against Hezbollah inside Lebanon in the coming weeks.
Two U.S. officials told POLITICO that the militia needs to also understand that Washington will help Israel defend itself if Hezbollah retaliates. They stressed that the militant group should not count on America to act as a brake on Israeli decision-making.
The message is being conveyed indirectly, the person said; the U.S. doesn’t engage Hezbollah one-on-one because it is a designated terrorist organization, and it relies on public communications or intermediaries.
As I forecasted months ago to the detriment of a few readers getting enraged, Israel will keep escalating as long Daddy US is present to give extensive, unconditional support. Not aiding Israel is also beneficial for its government and long-term plans, since Israel would get the short end of the stick (realistically, Israel can barely fight its Gaza conflict, let alone a regional war against all its Muslim neighbors), a perfect excuse to use any means necessary to achieve victory.
While all these proxy conflicts tether the world into a global war, something I defined as quintessentially distinct from world war. My definition of global war from 2019 (actually earlier than that, but mostly in private Intel documents).
This leaves arguably one of the most important companies in the world, and a critical country left to dry. In fact, this is what I shared with a couple of friends, China and Russia will “force” Hezbollah to bait Israel into a short-term larger conflict to spread the US military capabilities very thin since it will be divided between Ukraine, Israel vs its hostile neighbors, and whatever other proxy conflict it arises leave the doors open to Taiwan. China may even bait the US into protecting the Philippines…
An attack in Taiwan, which I intend to write about in a separate article will have dire economic consequences for the entire planet. From the top of my head, napkin math, 2 to 3 trillion dollars of economic damage short-term. And this is me completely ignoring Nvidia, the Western economy darling right now, with insane evaluation and quite a significant role in AI right now.
My intent with this piece is not feeding into the doom scroll/doom porn, in fact, this aspect of writing an article like this is the reason I sometimes go into large hiatuses. It is to inform you. My perspective on these subjects is often of an outlier, so potentially it can be helpful when making any decision.
It is clear by the day that mistakes are being made now on a weekly basis, Western Intelligence quite literally consumes and is high on its supply of propaganda, and Defense generals think on 20th-century warfare when we are almost at mid 21st. My remaining question for the reader is:
What will be this year’s October Surprise ? It will be a significant one, it is an election year, the Western Elite dreads the potential of Biden losing, and the competition between global elites is escalating. So I posit the same question as I did on June 23 on Twitter.
What will be this year's October Surprise ? Last year it was the Hamas-Israel conflict. Perhaps a false flag nuke/dirty bomb in Europe ? Taiwan invasion ?
It will be a significant one, it is an election year, the Western Elite dreads the potential of Biden losing, and the competition between global elites is escalating. Interesting times head.
*smokes my imaginary Phantom cigar