Dany م (@teknokrat__) On Assad's Relations with HZB

Source

https://xcancel.com/teknokrat__/status/1849273008977748144#m

Bashar al-Assad is taking this opportunity to reduce or perhaps get rid of Iranian presence/influence in Syria. Thread on Syria and its relationship with Iran and Hezbollah --->

Israel's attacks on Hezbollah, which have eliminated a large number of high ranking leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, has given the Syrian President the chance to turn away from the Axis of Resistance, defying Iran's strategic plans.

Assad has been relying on the IRGC, Hezbollah, and other pro-Iran militias to defeat his enemies in the civil war. But, this has been an uneasy alliance from the start. The Syrian regime isn't fond of increased Iranian influence in the country.

For example, Syria has not allowed Axis forces to use Syrian territory, including the Golan, to stage attacks against Israel. There are reports that Israeli forces have advanced a few hundred meters into Syrian territory and entrenched themselves to thwart any attack.

The Syrian regime denies any Israeli incursion occurred.

We can also see the stark contrast between how the Syrian regime reacted to the 2006 war and the current conflict. Today, the regime is mostly silent, not even providing rhetorical support for its supposed allies. Even as Syrian cities, such as Damascus and Latakia are bombed.

All over Syria, Iranian, Iraqi, and Lebanese operatives are being killed by the Israeli Air Force. The Syrian regime doesn't even express any interest in responding to such air strikes.

Since October 7th, there have been indications that Israel has conveyed, through Arab diplomats, a message to Assad, warning him that any move against it would result in an immediate massive retaliation which would include his assassination.

This, coupled with Assad's tacit hostility towards Iran and its allies, explains why Damascus has refrained from further involving itself in the war.

Since the start of the Syrian civil war, Hezbollah has involved itself on the side of Bashar Al-Assad, fighting to protect his regime. This was a move to secure its logistical line that pass from Iran to Lebanon through Iraq and Syria.

However, as time passes this move has caused many problems for Hezbollah.

By mixing with other armed groups such as local Syrian militias, Iraqi militias, and the Syrian Arab Army, Hezbollah was easily penetrated. Those years of fighting in Syria has allowed Israel to collect large amounts of data on the group, helping it in its current war.

Additionally, Hezbollah's involvement in the Syrian civil war has been widely unpopular in Lebanon, as it did so without the approval of the larger population, and aided a tyrant in his campaign of destruction against his own people.

And now, after all of this investment in Syria, Hezbollah is being slowly betrayed by the person it spent so much resources and political capital to protect.

Assad's self interested behavior is unsurprising. After all, his main motivation since his arrival to power has been self preservation at all costs. This is obvious for anyone who has spent time following the events in Syria since 2011.